How likely is it to pull a character from data cards?
In Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes, one of the ways to unlock new characters or promote existing characters is through data cards. If you go into the data cards screen, there are four generic cards/packs that have the ability to unlock characters either through granting a character shard, or providing the full character. These cards/packs are:
- Chromium Data Card
- Chromium Data Pack
- Chromium Mega-Pack
- Bronzium Data Card
What are the chances of getting a character or shard in each of these cards/packs?
Note: the Chromium Mega-Pack (option 3) guarantees at least one character being pulled. In the case for the Mega-Pack, what are the chances of pulling a second character?
Related: How do the base number of stars impact the odds of acquiring that character?
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The chance of getting a shard from a Bronzium card seems to be around 10%. See this spreadsheet from /r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/.
SWGoHCantina.com has a breakdown of drops from Chromium cards. It looks like the total chance at a character is around 25% (with 2* and 3* being more prevalent than 1* or 4*), with shards taking the remaining 75%. It doesn’t look like they have data for the 4- or 8-packs specifically — which makes sense given that it would cost thousands to get a statistically significant number of them — but I would hypothesize that the non-guaranteed cards are simply treated exactly like normal individual cards.
So for example, the 4-pack would have a 1 – 0.754 ~= 68% chance of pulling one or more characters and a 4×(0.25×0.753) ~= 42% chance of pulling exactly one character. The average number of characters per each 4-pack will be exactly 1:
4×(0.254) + 1×4×(0.25×0.753) + 2×6×(0.252×0.752) + 3×4×(0.75×0.253)